As Charlie Dalin sets a new Vendée Globe record, sailing sheds light on a concept valuable to entrepreneurship: effectuation. Behind this term lies a different approach to managing uncertainty. Like at sea, innovation and facing competition are not simply about precise calculations and perfect predictions.
The Vendée Globe, the mythical solo, non-stop, round-the-world sailing race, pushes the limits of human and technological endurance. The skippers have to contend with the most hostile seas, fierce winds and loneliness for around three months. But beyond the sporting prowess of Charlie Dalin and the others, the Vendée Globe reveals a strategic approach that finds an unexpected echo in the world of entrepreneurship: effectuation.
On the surface, these two worlds seem unconnected. And yet, skippers and entrepreneurs share a common challenge: navigating uncertainty. For sailors, meticulous preparation is essential, with detailed backward planning of tasks before the big start. But the reality of the race is very different: once over the starting line, setbacks multiply, and the unexpected becomes the norm.
Like a skipper
When faced with such uncertainty, it is tempting to try to anticipate every situation and predict the future to gain control. This predictive logic is reflected in the words of the Stoic philosopher Seneca: “If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favourable”. But this approach quickly reaches its limits when the environment becomes too complex and unpredictable. For sailors, uncertainty begins just after the starting line; for entrepreneurs, it begins before.
This is where the theory of effectuation, developed by researcher Saras Sarasvathy, comes in. By studying seasoned entrepreneurs, she discovered a different logic, one that does not seek to predict the future, but rather to create it using available resources. Effectuation is about looking at the current situation as it is and identifying the opportunities it holds.
For the skippers of the Vendée Globe, this means accepting the weather, the damage and the moments of fatigue. Instead of stubbornly sticking to a pre-established plan, they embrace the possibilities that arise. Unexpected calm waters can be the ideal time to repair a sail or rest, while a sudden gust of wind can become an opportunity to optimise the course.
Non-predictive control
Similarly, “effectual” entrepreneurs do not try to predict their sales figures or whether their business model will be optimal. They move forward one step at a time, using the resources at their disposal – their skills, their network, their capital – to engage partners.
Effectuation is based on one key principle: non-predictive control. Rather than trying to predict an uncertain environment, the idea is to control what is within their power – their own actions – to shape the future. This radical shift in perspective opens up new horizons.
For skippers, this means accepting that there will be storms, squalls and calm areas. But instead of resigning themselves to these setbacks, they can choose how to respond, even if it means deviating from their original course. Every decision is guided by their determination to finish the race, while dealing with the realities of each moment.
A compass for navigation
Effectual entrepreneurs adopt the same approach. They know that their initial project will evolve as they meet new people, receive feedback from the market, and deal with new emerging constraints. Rather than sticking to a fixed business plan, they prefer experimenting and getting others on board to not be alone. Each stage is an opportunity to adjust course and seize new possibilities.
This strategic agility is essential in a complex and changing world. Both skippers and entrepreneurs understand that uncertainty is not an obstacle to be eliminated, but a resource to be incorporated into decision-making. By focusing on what they can control – their boat, their resources – they can make progress.
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Of course, this approach does not guarantee success. But it provides a compass for navigating uncertainty, moving step by step rather than being paralysed by the unpredictable. It is an invaluable lesson for anyone facing the unknown, whether they are skippers, entrepreneurs, or explorers of a new kind.
Embracing the unkown
So, was Seneca wrong? What if, instead of waiting for the favourable wind to take us where we want to go, we let those winds tell us where we can go? That is the challenge of effectuation, the entrepreneurial approach that encourages us to embrace uncertainty instead of running from it.
For Vendée Globe sailors and entrepreneurs alike, this approach opens up new horizons. It frees them from the tyranny of prediction, the fear of failure and paralysis in the face of the unknown. It invites them to dive in and experiment. It reminds them that the adventure lies as much in the journey as in the destination.
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So, whether you are Charlie Dalin, an entrepreneur, or simply curious, let this philosophy inspire you. Learn to turn every wave into an opportunity and build your future with what you have at your disposal. It is in adversity that true adventurers are revealed – those who know how to turn headwinds into allies to achieve their dreams.
With effectuation as their only compass, and uncertainty as their greatest ally.
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article in French.